ICELANDNORTHERN LIGHTS MONITOR

Four factors receive 0–3 points each; their sum is the base score / 12. High 10–12, Moderate 7–9, Low 4–6, Highly unlikely 0–3 are rubric rankings, not sighting probabilities.

Cloud cover >90% or solar altitude >−6° overrides a complete base score to an effective score of zero. Exactly 90% and exactly −6° are not blocking. Missing required input leaves both scores unavailable, while any known blocker is still displayed.

Sky darkness combines the Sun and static artificial skyglow into one factor. Astronomical night ≤−18° gets 3; astronomical twilight (−18°,−12°] and nautical twilight (−12°,−6°] get 2; civil twilight (−6°,0°) gets 1 base point but triggers the solar override; daytime ≥0° gets 0. The omitted astronomical-twilight band is resolved conservatively at 2 points. High modeled artificial skyglow gives this factor 0, using the configurable threshold below.

The next ten days remain selectable even when Kp or weather stops earlier; available weather + darkness points are explicitly partial and never ranked as a complete aurora score. NOAA Kp and current OVATION are never extended into missing future hours. History uses a separate past-48-hour window. Hide daylight hours is checked by default: hours whose brightest sampled Sun altitude is >−6° (including civil twilight) are removed from every time selector and playback. Exactly −6° remains visible. Dates clamp to the next visible hour, or the last if beyond the window. Playback moves one visible slot per second, visibly skipping hidden daytime gaps.

Weather is sampled regionally at 0.5° latitude × 0.75° longitude (about 35–56 km), from an underlying ~9 km ECMWF model. Each regional sample is held across its cell; no fine-scale weather interpolation or smoothing is invented. Skyglow uses authentic 0.1° display samples from the static World Atlas 2015. Coast-clipped color pixels do not imply 0.1° weather precision.

Selected-area calculations will appear here.

World Atlas 2015 · loading authentic static samples…

Full rubric, thresholds, licenses and sources ↗

Checking spatial cloud and precipitation model…

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These are current source observations and short-term context. The combined map uses the Kp interval matched to your selected hour, and never stretches the current OVATION grid into future or past nights.

OVATION unavailable

No short-term model coverage for the selected hour.

Capture time and live status unverified.

Credit: Aurora Reykjavík / Landhotel. Each camera shows its own viewpoint; it does not represent the selected map area.